Sunday, February 23, 2014

Edin Dzeko

lately on the fb page, there has been a lot of discussion about Edin Dzeko.  A LOT of discussion.  Not all of it good.  The miss he had yesterday was terrible.  But all players have an occasional miss.  Right?  That is a very true statement.

So, I thought I'd look at some statistics.  I looked at on 23 Feb 14, and copied them into a spreadsheet, doing some quick math.  Please find the spreadsheet attached.  I can not tell when ESPN last updated this, but it does seem slightly out of date.

First, let me say that I am NOT a hater.  He's done a few clutch things for the team.  I WANT him to succeed.  But anyone who makes it to Maggies on a regular basis has seen me in the moan zone going on about him shooting wide, and over, and at the keeper.  It seems to me he does it a lot.  But what do the stats say?

For as many goals as City have scored this year, there are 4 players that lead the way: Sergio Agüero, Álvaro Negredo, Edin Dzeko and Yaya Touré.  Between these four, I've done some quick math and found the following:

% of shots on goal % of SG that go in % of shots that go in Assists/game started
50% 54% 27% 0.364 Sergio Agüero
42% 62% 26% 0.231 Álvaro Negredo
32% 45% 14% 0.240 Edin Dzeko
37% 73% 27% 0.152 Yaya Touré

Compared to the others scoring goals on the team (I did not include Jovetic because he hasn't played much, but he beats Dzeko in everything but assists), Edin doesn't look so good.  What's not in the table is the number of shots he takes.  He's got 20%+ more than Sergio or the Beast and almost double the shots of Yaya.  If his shooting percentage was that of Yaya or Sergio, he'd have 32 goals!

As a baseball fan, I have one thing to suggest.  That Edin get his eyes checked.  I mean that seriously, not maliciously.  In baseball, players who's batting average has slumped frequently find that their eyesight has gotten worse without them knowing it.  Contact lenses have added 30-50 points to a players batting average.  Perhaps they can help Edin?

If Jovetic can get and stay healthy, I'd much rather see Edin on the bench.  He's received a lot of minutes this year and much of it is due to injuries.  Certainly, he's better than some of the strikers in City's not so distant past.  But he doesn't seem up to par with the current bunch.  And unless that changes, I hope we can find someone who can make better use of the chances they get on the pitch.

Soooo, in light of the upcoming Liverpool vs. City match, I thought I'd update this table to reflect some updated stats and some interesting compares:

G/Shot G/Shot on Goal Sh/SH
Sergio Agüero 0.28 0.54 0.52
Álvaro Negredo 0.27 0.63 0.42
Edin Dzeko 0.15 0.41 0.36
Yaya Touré 0.3 0.71 0.42
Luis Suárez 0.16 0.36 0.44
Daniel Sturridge 0.22 0.51 0.44

Edin compares favorably to the Liverpool strikers, except in the category of shots/shots on goal.  In other words, if he could hit the net he'd have more goals than Suarez, because he's playing more games.

C'mon CITY!!!!